I get it, you don’t like Superdelegates. Okay then, forget Superdelegates. Let’s look at the Democratic nomination race without them at all. There are 4051 Pledged Delegates total. If Sanders or Clinton wanted to win with just pledged delegates alone they need to get 2383 of them, or 58.8%…

Clinton Sanders
Date & Contest Number Still Needed Out of Total Remaining Delegates % of Remainder Needed Number Still Needed Out of Total Remaining Delegates % of Remainder Needed
1/31 No Race 2382 /4051 58.8% 2383 /4051 58.8%
2/1 Iowa 2360 /4007 58.9% 2362 /4007 58.9%
2/9 New Hampshire 2351 /3983 59% 2347 /3983 58.9%
2/20 Nevada 2331 /3948 59% 2332 /3948 59%
2/27 South Carolina 2292 /3895 58.8% 2318 /3895 59.5%
3/1 Super Tuesday (11 States +1 Territoriy) 1777 /3030 58.6% 1968 /3030 64.9%
3/5 3 States 1720 /2921 58.9% 1916 /2921 65.6%
3/6 Maine 1712 /2896 59.1% 1899 /2896 65.6%
3/8 2 States + Dems Abroad 1614 /2717 59.4% 1818 /2717 66.9%
3/12 Northern Marianas Islands 1610 /2711 59.4% 1816 /2711 67%
3/15 “Super Tuesday Light” (5 States) 1213 /2020 60% 1522 /2020 75.3%
3/22 3 States 1160 /1889 61.4% 1444 /1889 76.4%
3/26 3 States 1122 /1747 64.2% 1340 /1747 76.7%
4/5 Wisconsin 1084 /1661 65.2% 1292 /1661 77.8%
4/9 Wyoming 1077 /1647 65.4% 1285 /1647 78%
4/19 New York 938 /1400 67% 1117 /1400 84.1%
4/26 “Super Tuesday Zero Calories” (5 States) 721 /1016 71% 1010 /1016 99.4%
5/3 Indiana 682 /933 73.1% 966 /933 103.5%
5/7 Guam 678 /926 73.2% 963 /926 104%
5/10 West Virginia 667 /897 74.4% 945 /897 105.4%
5/17 2 States 613 /781 78.5% 883 /781 113%
6/4 Virgin Islands 607 /774 78.4% 882 /774 114%
6/5 Puerto Rico 571 /714 79.9% 858 /714 120%
6/7 Final “Super Tuesday” 6 states ? /20 ? ? /20 ?
7/14 Washington D.C. ? /0 ? ? /0 ?
* Above 70% is Wishful Thinking by any rational stretch of imagination.
* Above 80% is entering the realm of Day Dreams.
* Above 90% and you’ve left Day Dreams for the land of Fairy Tales and Make Believe.
* Above 100% is literally impossible!

 

This is to win with 100% PLEDGED DELEGATES ONLY! In 2008, Barack Obama got 81.6% of the way to the nomination with Pledged Delegates; Superdelegates took him the rest of the way. So far this year, Hillary Clinton is 76% of the way to the nomination on Pledged Delegates alone, and there are still enough out there that she could get the nomination from Pledged Delegates only. Sanders is only 64% of the way and has no possibility to be nominated by pledged delegates alone.

For anyone wanting to say something along the lines of, “Well yeah, but these numbers don’t mean anything since the system was rigged against Sanders.” I say to you, No it was not rigged, and even Bernie Sanders agrees.

It’s plain to see the efforts of Bernie Sanders have pushed the possibility of a “pure” nomination for Hillary Clinton into the stuff of Wishful Thinking bordering on Day Dreams, but it’s still mathematically possible. Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, has been living off Wishful Thinking since March 15th, he started Day Dreaming after New York on April 19, and quickly progressed to Fairy Tales and Make Believe after 4/26. By May 5th it became impossible for him, if only someone would let his campaign know…

 

**Updated to include results from Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Advertisements